Iran successfully qualified for the World Cup from Group E without a single loss [Getty]
Iran’s participation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup has become increasingly uncertain amid rising geopolitical tensions and conflicting signals from political leaders and football authorities.
The country has already qualified for the expanded 48-team tournament, which will be hosted by the US, Canada and Mexico beginning on 11 June, however, recent remarks by US President Donald Trump, statements from Iranian officials, and ongoing regional conflict have raised questions about whether Iran will ultimately take part.
If Iran withdraws or is excluded from the tournament, FIFA would face the unprecedented task of selecting a replacement team. The New Arab looks at the likelihood of Iran participating in the tournament and how either Iraq or the UAE could replace them if they don’t.
Trump, FIFA’s mixed messages on Iran participation
Trump has added to the confusion this week by suggesting it may not be appropriate for Iran to take part in the tournament. Writing on his Truth Social platform, the US president said he did not believe it “is appropriate that they be there, for their own life and safety”.
His remarks appeared to contradict comments attributed to FIFA president Gianni Infantino following a meeting with Trump at the White House earlier in the week.
Infantino said Trump had told him that Iran would be welcome at the tournament and stressed the importance of the World Cup as a unifying event.
“We all need an event like the FIFA World Cup to bring people together now more than ever”, Infantino said, according to The Guardian.
Iran’s football federation responded sharply to the speculation, insisting on social media that “no one can exclude Iran’s national team from the World Cup”.
At the same time, Iran’s sports minister Ahmad Donyamali suggested the country may choose not to participate. Speaking to Iranian state media, Donyamali said: “Under no circumstances do we have the appropriate conditions to participate in the World Cup.”
What happens if Iran withdraws?
If Iran decides not to participate, FIFA would have to determine how to replace a qualified team — something that rarely happens at the World Cup.
Under FIFA regulations, national associations are not permitted to withdraw from competitions without consequences. Teams that withdraw before the tournament starts can face fines ranging from €275,000 to €555,000, and may be referred to FIFA’s disciplinary committee for further sporting sanctions.
FIFA’s rules also give the organisation “sole discretion” to decide how to handle a withdrawal and to appoint another national association as a replacement.
Why Iraq and the UAE are the most likely replacements
If Iran’s place becomes vacant, attention is likely to turn to other teams from the Asian Football Confederation that narrowly missed out on direct qualification.
Iraq and the UAE are probably the most plausible candidates due to being among the highest-ranked AFC teams that did not secure automatic qualification.
Iran qualified by winning its group in the third round of Asian qualifying, and the next strongest teams in the region, including Iraq and the UAE, were involved in the final stages of the qualification pathway.
Iraq progressed to an intercontinental decider after defeating the UAE in a regional playoff match. The Iraqi side is scheduled to face either Bolivia or Suriname in Monterrey later this year, with the winner earning a place in the World Cup.
Replacing Iran with Iraq could appear straightforward from a sporting perspective, but the situation may not be simple. Iraqi officials have already asked FIFA to postpone their play-off match due to logistical difficulties caused by regional airspace closures.
Given the UAE was defeated by Iraq and can no longer qualify, they could also emerge as a possible replacement should FIFA decide not to promote Iraq from the play-off route. The Gulf nation is believed to be lobbying FIFA for consideration if Iran’s place becomes available.
Another plausible scenario is that if Iran cannot play, Iraq go straight to the tournament and the UAE take their place in the final play-off match against Bolivia or Suriname.
For now, however, Iran’s participation remains unresolved. FIFA officials have indicated that no final decision has been taken, and the governing body is expected to address the issue in the coming weeks.
