Nigeria’s HIV burden continues to surge despite mitigation measures by experts and industry leaders, as about 20,838 HIV-positive cases were recorded in the first quarter of 2026, according to the Nigerian National Data Repository (NDR) report.
Experts say that if HIV prevention vaccines were available, accessible, and affordable, Nigeria’s HIV burden could be controlled.
A BusinessDay analysis revealed that about N2.4 billion could have prevented the surge in HIV-positive cases within the first quarter of 2026, if each person had been administered at least two doses of Lenacapavir (LEN) at N58,000 per dose.
“Many of these cases may have been preventable if vaccines were available and administered,” noted Oyebade Funmilade, an expert in HIV prevention and treatment.
This figure raises urgent questions about priorities, access, and missed opportunities.
Data across 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), show that Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial hub, recorded the highest number of new cases at 2,298, translating to about N266.6 million in prevention costs.
Benue followed with 1,949 cases, reinforcing its long-standing classification as a high-burden state, with an estimated N226 million in prevention costs.
Akwa Ibom, Rivers, and Anambra States also recorded significant numbers, each requiring between N117 million and N134 million in estimated prevention costs as the states recorded 1,159, 1,137, and 1,013 cases respectively in Q1 2026.
At the lower end of the data, states like Yobe (100), Sokoto (110), and Ekiti (129) recorded fewer cases with estimated prevention costs ranging between N11.6 million and N14.9 million.
Yet, public health experts warn that lower numbers do not necessarily indicate lower risks, but may instead reflect gaps in testing, reporting, and healthcare access.
In a recent interview with Osakpamwan Imasogie, chief executive of Avon Healthcare Limited, noted that preventive healthcare has proven to be more cost-effective and life-saving.
“The world is moving from reactive care to preventive care because it is more cost-effective and strategic in saving lives,” he noted.
Prevention is not just cheaper than treatment, it is significantly more strategic, experts say.
Public health analysts shared similar views, noting that the N2.4 billion estimated for prevention over three months is modest when compared to the long-term cost of HIV treatment, which spans a lifetime.
Antiretroviral therapy, routine monitoring, and the management of these infections could multiply this figure several times over if infections continue at the current pace, experts warn.
They also note that making the vaccine more accessible and affordable for Nigerians could go a long way in preventing the spread of the disease
Nigeria’s HIV prevalence
Nigeria’s HIV prevalence has declined significantly, according to new data released by the Federal Government, with the national rate now estimated at 1.3 percent among adults aged 15-49, down from the previous 2.8 percent.
Despite this progress, the country’s overall burden remains substantial. In terms of global rankings, Nigeria has the second-highest disease burden in Africa,behind Namibia,and ranks fourth globally.
The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the National Agency for the Control of AIDS (NACA) estimate that about 1.9 million Nigerians are currently living with HIV.
Gender disparities persist, with women disproportionately affected. Recent UNAIDS data show prevalence among women at 1.9 percent, more than double the 0.9 percent recorded among men, underscoring ongoing structural and socio-economic vulnerabilities.
Government efforts
According to the World Health Organization(WHO), Nigeria has commenced the rollout of lenacapavir, a new long-acting injectable for HIV prevention, in a major push to curb new infections and accelerate progress toward national HIV targets.
The Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare launched the initiative with support from WHO, the Global Fund, the United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), and other partners.
This follows the country’s receipt of its first batch of lenacapavir in March 2026.
Recently, the Federal Government launched the National HIV Prevention Plan 2026–2030, marking a strategic shift from reactive treatment to proactive, development-driven interventions aimed at curbing new infections and strengthening Nigeria’s human capital for sustainable national growth.
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