All eyes on Lebanon as Iran deal hangs in the balance

Equities mostly rose on Tuesday as investors assessed the chances of an agreement to end the US-Israeli war on Iran, though Donald Trump and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu’s mixed signals over ending Israel’s attacks in Lebanon caused uncertainty.
While Wall Street ended with more tech-led records, Asia’s recent rally stuttered, while attention also turned to the release of US jobs data at the end of the week.
The US president said he had held talks with the Israeli prime minister and a “very good call” through unnamed representatives with the Hezbollah militant group.
Trump wrote on Truth Social that Netanyahu agreed to call off a military raid on Beirut, while the Lebanon-based group said “all shooting will stop”.
Lebanon’s US embassy said Hezbollah had accepted a US proposal for a “mutual cessation of attacks”.
But the Israeli leader appeared to cast doubt on any truce, while a report in the US news outlet Axios said Trump called him “crazy” and accused him of putting Iran peace talks at risk.
In a separate post, the US president said: “talks are continuing, at a rapid pace, with the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
But Iran’s news agency Tasnim reported Tehran had suspended dialogue with mediators in protest of Israel’s expanding offensive in Lebanon against Iran’s ally Hezbollah.
In a message carried by state TV, the Revolutionary Guards intelligence body said “crossing the red lines in Lebanon and Gaza” would mean “direct war”.
Tasnim reported that Iran would keep a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—through which about a fifth of global oil normally passes—and, with its allies, “activate other fronts”, including the Bab al-Mandeb Strait at the entrance to the Red Sea.
Earlier Monday, the US leader had told CNBC that “I don’t care” if the Iran peace talks collapsed, adding that “frankly, I thought they started to get very boring”.
Iran’s comments sent oil prices surging as much as seven per cent on Monday before they pared the gains. Both main contracts fell on Tuesday.
Despite uncertainty hanging over the crisis, Asian equities mostly advanced after a slow start to the day, helped by another surge in tech firms.
Seoul, which has been at the forefront of the rally this year, reversed a morning retreat to end at another all-time high, while Hong Kong jumped more than two per cent thanks to a more than 10 per cent jump in tech giant Tencent. E-commerce titans Alibaba and JD.com also enjoyed huge gains.
Shanghai, Singapore, Taipei, Manila, Mumbai, Bangkok and Jakarta also rose, but there were losses in Tokyo, Sydney and Wellington.
London, Paris and Frankfurt climbed at the open.
“Expectations for a US-Iran agreement remain fluid,” Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds at Glenmede said. “Recent strikes and conflicting statements from both sides highlight that key details remain unresolved.”
The largely positive day came on the back of records for all three main indexes on Wall Street that came as chip colossus Nvidia rocketed more than six percent after unveiling a powerful laptop chip for Windows machines.
Iran’s comments sent oil prices surging as much as seven per cent on Monday. [Getty]


