Climate change puts Nigeria’s food production at risk as farmers suffer heavy losses

Nigeria’s food production system is facing increasing pressure from climate change as unpredictable rainfall, prolonged dry spells, flooding, rising temperatures, pests and crop diseases continue to disrupt farming activities and reduce harvests.

Farmers and agricultural experts said the worsening weather conditions were causing losses running into billions of naira, while also discouraging investment in agriculture because of the growing uncertainty surrounding crop production.

Climate change is also worsening desertification in northern Nigeria, while floods and changing weather patterns are damaging farmlands and agricultural infrastructure in other parts of the country.

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency, NiMet, in its 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction, warned of significant variations in rainfall patterns across the country.

Although normal annual rainfall was expected in most parts of Nigeria, NiMet projected above-normal rainfall in parts of the North, South-East, South-South and the Federal Capital Territory.

Below-normal rainfall was forecast for parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun states, while dry spells were also expected in parts of several states, including Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kano, Kebbi, Niger, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara.

The forecasts have increased concerns among farmers who have already experienced the effects of unpredictable weather in previous farming seasons.

Farmers record billions of naira in losses

The Chairman of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, AFAN, Dr Nkechi Okafor, described climate change as a major threat to food production, warning that its continued impact could force more farmers out of business and worsen food insecurity.

Okafor said farmers could no longer rely on traditional planting calendars because rainfall patterns had become increasingly unpredictable.

She explained that farmers sometimes plant after the first rains only to experience prolonged dry spells that damage crops.

According to her, late rainfall and early cessation had affected the production of cereals, legumes, rice and root and tuber crops.

She stressed the need for increased investment in irrigation to reduce farmers’ dependence on rainfall and support year-round production.

Okafor said Nigerian farmers were already recording losses running into billions of naira as a result of climate-related shocks.

She called for stronger government support to help farmers acquire climate-smart skills and adopt production methods that can withstand changing weather conditions.

She also expressed concern that many rural farmers did not receive timely weather information despite the availability of forecasts from NiMet.

The AFAN official urged greater collaboration between farmers’ organisations and government agencies to ensure that climate information reaches farmers early enough for them to make appropriate planting and harvesting decisions.

She further called for measures to reduce the cost of agricultural inputs, noting that farmers were currently dealing with expensive seeds, fertiliser and other inputs while farm produce remained relatively cheap.

Unpredictable weather cuts crop yields

The Chief Farmer and Lead of JetFarmsNG, Jerry Olanrenwaju, said climate change was directly affecting crop production through irregular rainfall, prolonged dry spells and excessive flooding.

He identified ginger, turmeric and garlic among crops being affected by the changing weather conditions.

According to him, irregular rainfall can affect germination and root development, while excessive moisture increases the risk of fungal diseases.

Olanrenwaju said some farmers within his company’s network had recorded yield reductions of between 30 and 40 per cent in some seasons.

He explained that farmers investing between N500,000 and N800,000 per hectare could lose hundreds of thousands of naira when adverse weather conditions destroy crops.

He said the uncertainty over whether rainfall would arrive early, late or in excessive quantities had made agricultural planning increasingly difficult.

To reduce the risks, JetFarmsNG is promoting climate-smart practices, including improved land preparation, organic soil improvement, better drainage and flexible planting schedules.

The company is also exploring irrigation and water-management solutions while working with partners to provide improved crop varieties capable of coping with changing weather conditions.

Olanrenwaju, however, said government interventions were still insufficient, calling for improved access to extension services, agricultural finance, insurance and reliable climate information.

Farmers become more cautious

The Co-Founder of DeBranch Farmers Limited, Sandra Victor-Gwafan, said climate change had created greater uncertainty among farmers in Kaduna and other parts of Nigeria.

She said farmers could no longer confidently determine the right time to plant because early rainfall could suddenly stop, while heavy rains could occur later than expected.

DeBranch Farmers, which works largely with rice out-growers, has introduced measures including farmer sensitisation, drainage planning, coordinated mechanisation and staggered planting.

Victor-Gwafan said some farmers who invested between N250,000 and N400,000 per hectare had lost between 30 and 50 per cent of expected harvests because of flooding and prolonged dry spells.

She called for greater investment in irrigation, climate-smart agriculture, resilient seeds, extension services, timely weather information and affordable agricultural financing.

Vegetable farmers adjust to changing weather

A vegetable farmer in Osun State, Oluokun Remi, said climate change was increasingly affecting tomatoes, pepper, okra, cucumber, cabbage, onion and fruit production.

He explained that excessive rainfall could wash nutrients away from plant roots, while insufficient or suddenly interrupted rainfall could damage crops.

Remi said he now makes provision for irrigation before planting to ensure that crops have access to water even when rainfall fails.

Experts demand urgent climate adaptation

An environmental expert, Prof. Babatunde Bolaji Bernard, said climate change had become an immediate threat to Nigeria’s agricultural productivity and food security.

He said farmers were dealing with erratic rainfall, delayed rainfall onset, prolonged dry spells, rising temperatures and severe flooding.

According to him, drought and desertification were particularly affecting northern Nigeria, while flooding in central and southern areas was destroying crops, washing away soil nutrients and damaging agricultural infrastructure.

He also identified heat stress, pests and diseases as growing threats to crops and livestock.

Bernard said maize was highly vulnerable to water stress, rice could suffer from both drought and flooding, while sorghum and millet, despite being relatively resilient, could still be affected by extreme heat. Cassava, he added, was increasingly exposed to changing rainfall patterns and disease outbreaks.

He warned that the combined impact of these challenges was contributing to lower food production, increased farming costs and rising food prices.

Bernard advocated the use of early-maturing and drought-resistant crop varieties, improved irrigation, mulching, conservation agriculture, crop diversification and agroforestry.

He also called for stronger weather information systems and extension services to help farmers make better planting and harvesting decisions.

At the policy level, he urged greater investment in irrigation, rural roads, storage facilities, markets and agricultural insurance.

He further called for stronger environmental protection measures to tackle deforestation and land degradation, as well as greater use of international climate financing to support agricultural adaptation.

ActionAid calls for stronger climate-resilience strategy

The Country Director of ActionAid Nigeria, Dr Andrew Mamedu, said climate change was already affecting millions of Nigerian smallholder farmers, particularly women who play a major role in household food production.

Mamedu said farmers in northern Nigeria were facing prolonged droughts, desertification and shorter rainy seasons, while communities in the Middle Belt and southern riverine areas were increasingly exposed to flooding.

He said climate shocks were disrupting planting calendars, reducing yields and increasing production risks.

The impact, he noted, also extended to the post-harvest stage, as extreme weather, poor storage, inadequate processing facilities and weak rural infrastructure contributed to additional losses.

Mamedu said women farmers were particularly vulnerable because they often face greater difficulties accessing land, finance, irrigation, extension services and climate information.

While acknowledging government and development-partner programmes focused on climate-resilient agriculture and farmer support, he said the overall response remained inadequate compared with the scale of the challenge.

He called for a coordinated and properly funded transformation of Nigeria’s food system, including increased investment in drought- and flood-tolerant crops, soil restoration, regenerative agriculture, sustainable livestock production, irrigation and water harvesting.

He also advocated climate-resilient storage facilities, cold-chain systems, rural roads and local processing infrastructure to reduce post-harvest losses.

Mamedu urged the government to expand access to affordable credit, agricultural insurance and targeted subsidies, particularly for women and young farmers.

Farmers urged to insure against climate risks

The Global Head of Agricultural Risk at Leadway Assurance, Ayoola Fatona, advised farmers to include insurance in their farm budgets as a way of reducing losses caused by floods, drought and other weather-related risks.

Fatona said many smallholder farmers considered seeds, fertiliser and labour more important than insurance when preparing their budgets for a new planting season.

He stressed that farmers were highly exposed to climate and weather risks and should therefore regard agricultural insurance as part of their production planning.

With weather patterns becoming increasingly difficult to predict, experts said Nigeria must move beyond emergency responses and invest more heavily in irrigation, climate-smart farming, resilient crop varieties, agricultural insurance, weather information and other measures capable of protecting farmers and strengthening the country’s food supply.

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