Nigeria could declare its Ebola outbreak over as early as December 7, 2026, if no further confirmed or probable cases are detected, Coordinating Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Muhammad Ali Pate, has said.
The proposed date follows the medical evacuation of Nigeria’s imported Ebola index patient from the country on Monday, October 26. However, the date remains provisional and is subject to validation of the required 42-day countdown by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (NCDC) and the World Health Organisation (WHO).
In a post on his X account on Monday, Pate said the government’s immediate priorities were monitoring identified contacts, investigating alerts and strengthening preparedness across health facilities.
He warned that any additional confirmed or probable case would require a fresh countdown under WHO criteria, potentially delaying the declaration.
The WHO said Nigeria currently had no Ebola cases following the evacuation of the patient and her husband to Switzerland. However, the absence of active cases does not mean the outbreak has officially ended, as public health authorities must continue surveillance and contact tracing.
The NCDC had identified 53 contacts linked to the index case as of its October 24 situation report. The WHO subsequently said Nigeria would continue monitoring 52 contacts, while Swiss authorities would follow up with the patient’s husband, who travelled with her.
The contacts include people who may have been exposed through healthcare, household or other interactions. Being identified as a contact does not mean a person has contracted the virus, but it requires follow-up to detect possible infection promptly.
Pate said response teams were working with the Federal Capital Territory Administration, state health authorities and partners to contain the outbreak and prevent community transmission.
He urged Nigerians to remain calm, cooperate with contact-tracing teams and follow updates from the NCDC and the Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare.
Nigeria confirmed its first imported case of Ebola Bundibugyo virus disease on October 20, after laboratory tests detected the virus in a woman who had travelled from Uganda. The case prompted an intensified public health response, including contact tracing, case investigation and measures to strengthen infection prevention and control.
The patient was medically evacuated to Switzerland on October 26 after her condition improved sufficiently for the transfer under strict precautions. Her evacuation means she is no longer being managed in Nigeria, but authorities continue to monitor people who may have been exposed.
Under WHO criteria, an Ebola outbreak can generally be declared over after 42 consecutive days without new cases, with the countdown linked to the last confirmed patient’s second negative test or death, as applicable. The relevant public health authorities must validate that the conditions have been met before making an official declaration.
The December 7 date is therefore a possible target, not a confirmed end date. Nigeria’s ability to meet it depends on continued surveillance, the outcome of investigations into alerts and whether any further confirmed or probable cases emerge.
