Zainab Abioye
A leading international publication, The Economist, has projected that President Bola Tinubu could secure re-election in the 2027 presidential election despite widespread dissatisfaction over worsening insecurity and economic hardship.
In a report published on October 1, titled “Nigerians dislike their president but may re-elect him anyway,” the publication argued that Tinubu’s chances may have less to do with popular approval of his administration than with Nigeria’s complex electoral dynamics.
According to the report, the president appears confident ahead of the 2027 election despite the economic difficulties and security challenges confronting millions of Nigerians.
The Economist attributed the president’s electoral advantage partly to the strength of incumbency, noting that Nigerian presidents seeking re-election have historically benefited from access to ruling-party structures and resources.
The publication also identified the fragmentation of the opposition as a major factor that could work in Tinubu’s favour.
It noted that former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and former Anambra State governor, Peter Obi, are expected to contest under different platforms—the African Democratic Congress and Nigeria Democratic Congress respectively.
The failure of the two major opposition figures to form a joint ticket, the report suggested, could prevent anti-incumbency votes from being consolidated behind a single candidate.
Quoting Joachim MacEbong of Control Risks, The Economist said, “Because it’s not a united ticket, that anti-APC vote is not coalesced into a single vote.”
The publication further noted that the 2023 presidential election demonstrated how divided opposition votes could benefit an incumbent, with Atiku and Obi contesting separately under the Peoples Democratic Party and Labour Party respectively.
Religion was also identified as a potentially influential factor in the 2027 contest.
The Economist observed that Tinubu and Vice-President Kashim Shettima, both Muslims, could retain an advantage in parts of northern Nigeria, which has the largest concentration of voters.
It also suggested that Obi’s Catholic faith could influence some voters in the predominantly Muslim North, despite his choice of a Muslim running mate.
Beyond religion, the publication highlighted what it described as political cynicism among voters who have become accustomed to poor public services.
It quoted MacEbong as saying that people in some northern communities have experienced inadequate security, healthcare and education for so long that their expectations of government have steadily declined.
The report cited the case of a woman in Maiduguri who said she would vote for Tinubu as a gesture of appreciation after receiving medicine at a government hospital.
The publication, however, acknowledged that many Nigerians remain dissatisfied with the government’s performance, particularly because the security situation remains troubling and the benefits of economic reforms have yet to translate into significant improvements in living standards.
It noted that Nigeria’s economic growth is expected to reach 4.1 per cent this year but warned that growth figures may have little electoral impact if ordinary citizens do not experience tangible improvements in their daily lives.
“As long as the security crisis remains unresolved and economic growth, which is expected to hit 4.1% this year, does not translate into concrete improvements in Nigerians’ daily lives, many voters will remain disappointed,” the report stated.
It added that such disappointment might not necessarily translate into votes against the incumbent.
