The growth estimate is based on the latest Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report compiled by S&P Global and released on Tuesday.
Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research, West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, said, “Insights from the monthly PMIs and crude oil production data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission suggest an economy that grew by an estimated 3.7 per cent y/y in H1 2025, supported by higher crude oil production and improved growth in manufacturing and services, while agriculture continues to lag its long-term average growth rate of 3.6 per cent.”
Oni added that Nigeria’s economy is still on track to grow by 3.5 per cent in real terms for the year. However, post-GDP rebasing may raise this to around 4.2 per cent. “We still expect the Nigerian economy to grow by 3.5 per cent y/y in real terms in 2025, but post-GDP rebasing may amplify this growth to 4.2 per cent y/y,” he said.
He also projected a drop in interest rates over the next two years. “Given that inflation is expected to remain softer compared to the 2024 average, interest rates are likely to be lower this year and next. We expect a 150–200 bps rate cut in 2025 and a 200–250 bps cut in 2026,” Oni explained.
