From battlefields to bedrooms: How surging condom prices raise public health risks
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experts fear a surge in sexually transmitted diseases in low, middle-income countries and high risk populations.
The ripple effect of the Iran-US war is gradually slipping beneath the sheets as Karex, the world’s largest condom producer, has raised prices by 30 percent, citing global supply-chain disruptions and raising fresh concerns among public health experts who warn that the rising cost of protection could stall progress in the fight against the spread of HIV and other infectious diseases.
The Malaysian-based firm, which produces about five billion condoms annually or roughly one-fifth of global supply, said escalating input costs, global supply-chain disruptions and high freight charges have made the increase unavoidable.
With Nigeria being one of the largest importers of condoms in Africa, followed by Mozambique, per reports from the US Customs and Border Protection, public health experts warn that any disruption in supply or rise in prices could weaken efforts to reduce the spread of infectious diseases especially among low income and high risk populations.
“Rising costs of essential health commodities like condoms highlight how vulnerable global supply chains are. For Africa, this is a reminder that strengthening local manufacturing is not optional, it is central to safeguarding HIV prevention efforts and long term health security,” Ashlee Demas, a public health analyst noted.
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Karex depends on more than 100 different chemicals sourced across Asia and Europe, making its production chain highly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. According to Goh Miah Kiat, chief executive of Karex, even a shortage of a single component could halt entire production lines.
Goh warned that prices of some key materials have doubled. “Some raw material prices have increased by 100 per cent. We have no choice but to make adjustments now,” he said in an interview with The New York Times.
“If the war persists, a shortage of even one item could ripple through factories and bring production to a halt,” he said, adding that the company’s 3,000-strong workforce across Malaysia and Thailand could also be affected.
The ripple effects are likely to hit developing markets like Nigeria hardest, where access and affordability already determine demand. With Karex supplying major global brands such as Durex and Trojan, health analysts warn that price increases could spread across retail markets worldwide, heightening the risk of an increase in Sexually Transmitted Infections(STIs) as fewer people are able to afford protection.
Condoms remain critical in disease prevention
Health experts warn that any disruption in condom supply or affordability could have serious public health consequences, particularly in countries already battling high rates of sexually transmitted infections like Nigeria.
Evidence suggests that increased HIV related knowledge is associated with a reduced risk of HIV infection and transmission, and condoms remain one of the most cost effective tools for preventing infections such as HIV and AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases, while also reducing unintended pregnancies.
In the United States for instance, increased condom use prevented an estimated 117 million new HIV infections between 1990 and 2019.
In Nigeria, report from the Nigerian Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS) indicate that between 2003 to 2013, there was a minimal mean increase in general HIV-related knowledge and HIV-risk reduction among the general population.
Public health advocates say maintaining steady condom supply is essential to sustaining these gains.
“Any increase in price or shortage in supply risks reversing progress made in HIV prevention,” Godiya Ibrahim, a public health expert noted. “ Affordability directly influences usage, especially among young and low-income populations,” she added.
Nigeria’s booming demand meets global pressure
Nigeria remains Africa’s largest condom importer, with annual consumption estimated at about 400 million units, while market potential is projected to reach as high as 1.2 billion units.
Recent trade data by 6Wresearch shows the market rebounded sharply in 2024, recording a growth rate of over 44 percent despite earlier declines. The data project continued expansion at a compound annual growth rate of 7.2 percent between 2026 and 2032, driven by rising awareness, improved distribution channels, and increased demand for both male and female condoms.
Yet beyond the data, market insiders say demand is even more striking in practice.
“There’s a Lebanese importer in Lagos that brings in condoms worth about $3 million every eight weeks, and they sell out before the next shipment arrives,” said Daniel Banks, a Lagos-based data analyst.
“If you know how much condoms are sold out in Nigeria in less than a week, you’ll understand the scale of demand,” he added.
A trader operating within Lagos’ warehouse clusters echoed similar experiences. “We once saw a consignment of N600 million naira cleared in under a week,” he said. “It sells faster than many everyday consumer goods,” he added.
Market observers argue that this resilience highlights a broader reality, economic hardship has done little to dampen demand.
“Sexual behaviour doesn’t slow down because the economy is tough,” Banks added. “If anything, demand remains consistent or even grows, which is why supply disruptions are a serious concern,” banks noted.
