The Osun Blueprint: Can the Adebutus Replicate Adeleke’s Defiance in Ogun 2027? | By Wale Onifade

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When INEC’s returning officer declared Ademola Adeleke winner of the Osun governorship election on Sunday morning, with 511,067 votes against Bola Oyebamiji’s 444,815, the result did more than secure a second term for the Accord Party governor.

It handed every opposition camp in the South West a live case study in how a well-rooted political family can survive federal pressure, defections, and a ruling party’s financial weight.

Nowhere is that lesson being studied more closely than in Ogun State, where Ladi Adebutu’s Peoples Democratic Party organisation is preparing for a rematch against a resurgent APC now consolidated behind Senator Solomon Adeola, popularly called Yayi.

The comparison is not accidental. Both races share a spine: an incumbent-backed APC candidate carrying the full weight of Abuja and the state government machine, an opposition built substantially around one family’s name and resources, and an electorate whose loyalty to that family runs deeper than party colours.

Whether Adebutu can walk the road Adeleke just walked again depends on how honestly his campaign confronts the differences between the two states, not just the similarities.

Adeleke’s win was not a clean landslide. His 511,067 to 444,815 margin, a spread of roughly 66,000 votes, came after a bruising campaign in which APC deployed the full machinery of an incumbent federal government. Oyebamiji carried 11 of 30 local government areas.

Turnout hovered close to 43 percent. This was not a rout of APC in Osun. It was a narrow, hard-fought defence of an incumbency by a governor who had already banked two years of local goodwill, decamped from PDP to Accord to escape a national party crisis, and leaned on a family name (the Adelekes) that predates his own governorship by a generation of philanthropic and business visibility in the state.

The lesson for opposition strategists elsewhere is not that APC can be beaten by sentiment alone. It is that a locally rooted, well-resourced family brand, combined with real service delivery and a coherent local structure, can hold its ground against federal incumbency when the opposing candidate is perceived as externally imposed.

Ladi Adebutu enters 2027 for the second consecutive cycle as PDP’s standard bearer, having lost to Dapo Abiodun in 2023. His family’s commercial and philanthropic footprint in Ogun, anchored by the Adebutu name, his father Sir Kessington Adebutu and his brother Bode Adebutu’s business interests, gives the PDP campaign a resource base and name recognition that mirrors what the Adelekes brought to Osun.

The campaign’s early 2027 messaging has leaned hard into an anti-imposition frame, with Adebutu’s media office openly questioning Yayi’s state of origin and casting him as unfamiliar with Ogun’s political and social history, a direct echo of the “outsider versus son of the soil” framing that worked for Adeleke.

There is a real basis for that argument. Adeola spent his formative political career as a two-time Lagos State House of Assembly member and senator representing Lagos West from 2015 to 2023, before relocating his ambitions to Ogun West and winning a Senate seat there in 2023.

For a campaign hunting for a wedge issue, a candidate who built sixteen years of political capital in a neighbouring state before pivoting to Ogun is not a difficult target.

If the Adebutu family wants to thread the Osun needle, the strategy has to move past ancestry politics and toward the two things that actually carried Adeleke: a credible development scorecard contest and a resolved internal coalition.

APC’s Ogun campaign is already trying to pre-empt this by publicising infrastructure delivered under Adeola’s Senate tenure, markets and ICT centres in Ilaro and elsewhere, precisely to make the race about governance rather than genealogy.