A political group backing President Bola Tinubu’s second-term bid, the BTO for PBAT ’27 movement, has declared that a potential coalition between former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, will fail to prevent President Bola Tinubu’s re-election in 2027.
The group said combining opposition support bases arithmetically does not automatically translate to electoral victory, arguing that voter loyalty and political structures cannot simply be transferred through an alliance of political leaders.
This position was contained in a statement signed by its Director-General, Adesuyi Adojutelegan.
According to the group, Nigeria’s political history had shown that coalitions formed primarily for electoral purposes often faced challenges arising from competing ambitions, regional considerations and differences in political interests.
It said a possible Atiku-Obi alliance would have to resolve fundamental questions about leadership and political direction before convincing their respective supporters to work as one bloc.
“Unity on paper is not necessarily unity at the polls,” the group said, maintaining that the proposed opposition merger would face the difficult task of transforming separate support bases into a single, coordinated political movement.
The movement also cited the advantages of incumbency, including the governing All Progressives Congress’ existing political structures across the 36 states.
It further pointed to the economic reforms of the Tinubu administration, saying the government’s record of policies and ongoing projects would form an important part of the president’s campaign for a second term.
According to the group, the BTO for PBAT ’27 campaign would focus on what it described as governance and delivery, rather than opposition grievances.
It said voters would ultimately assess the administration based on what had been achieved, what was being implemented and what remained to be delivered.
The group also highlighted the different political backgrounds and support bases associated with Atiku and Obi.
Atiku contested the 2023 presidential election on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party, while Obi contested on the Labour Party platform.
Both have remained prominent figures in discussions surrounding efforts to build a stronger opposition coalition ahead of 2027.
BTO for PBAT ’27 argued that bringing the two political camps together would involve more than an agreement between their principals, noting that supporters of the two politicians would also have to embrace a common political project.
The movement maintained that Tinubu’s camp would enter the 2027 contest with what it described as a more unified message, built around one presidential candidate, one governing party structure and the administration’s policy agenda.
It expressed confidence that the president’s political coalition would withstand efforts by opposition parties to forge a broader alliance before the election.
The group, however, acknowledged that opposition negotiations could remain a significant feature of the political landscape as the 2027 election approaches.
It said the ultimate strength of any proposed opposition coalition would depend on its ability to establish common leadership, a shared programme and sustained support beyond agreements reached among political leaders.
