The Director of Strategic Communication for the ADC Presidential Campaign Council, Phrank Shaibu, said electoral forecasts cannot determine how Nigerians will vote.
In an article titled “No forecast can overrule the people: Nigerians will vote out Tinubu and elect Atiku”, Shaibu said that factors such as incumbency, political machinery, religion and voter turnout could influence the election but did not amount to public consent.
He was reacting to a report published by The Economist on October 1, which examined Tinubu’s prospects in the 2027 presidential election.
The publication identified incumbency and access to ruling-party structures as factors that had benefited incumbents in previous Nigerian elections.
It also pointed to opposition fragmentation, noting that ADC presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar and NDC presidential candidate Peter Obi would run under different political platforms.
The report further identified religion and voter cynicism as factors that could influence voting patterns in the 2027 elections.
Shaibu said the factors identified by The Economist could not determine the election outcome in advance.
“These factors matter. But they are not the same as public consent, and none can tell us how Nigerians will vote in January. A forecast is not a verdict,” he said.
He also rejected what he described as an interpretation of hardship and limited access to public services as political passivity among Nigerians.
Shaibu said residents affected by insecurity and economic hardship retained their political agency and would make their own decisions when they had the opportunity to vote.
He said a resident’s appreciation for receiving medical assistance should not automatically be interpreted as blanket approval of the government’s record.
Shaibu said the economic situation would remain an important issue for voters, arguing that Nigerians experience the cost-of-living crisis through food prices, transport fares, school fees, electricity bills and the cost of running businesses.
He cited inflation of 15.39 per cent in August and food inflation of 19.57 per cent year on year.
Shaibu said a slowdown in the rate of price increases does not necessarily mean food and other necessities have become cheaper.
“Nigerians measure the economy by what their income can buy, what they must go without and whether they can provide a decent life for their families,” he said.
Shaibu also disputed the suggestion that low voter turnout could work in Tinubu’s favour.
He said the relatively low participation recorded in the 2023 presidential election could have resulted from apathy, insecurity, distrust, logistical barriers or the belief that voting would not change anything.
According to him, low voter turnout should not be interpreted as evidence that most Nigerians support an incumbent.
