The Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Abubakar Kyari, has attributed Nigeria’s projected food insecurity crisis to climate change, inconsistent rainfall and the Super El Niño phenomenon.
Kyari said changing weather patterns and prolonged dry spells had disrupted planting seasons and affected agricultural production, making it difficult for farmers to depend on rain-fed agriculture.
The minister stated this in a statement released on Monday while responding to criticism of the October 2026 Cadre Harmonisé food security assessment, which projected that 33.5 million Nigerians could face severe food and nutrition insecurity between June and August 2027.
He accused opposition figures of misrepresenting the assessment for political purposes, insisting that the projected figure was not an indication of the consequences of President Bola Tinubu’s re-election in 2027.
According to Kyari, the assessment is an early-warning mechanism designed to identify food and nutrition security risks and guide government interventions, not an election forecast.
He explained that the Cadre Harmonisé was developed by the Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) and its regional and technical partners, with support from organisations including the Food and Agriculture Organisation, World Food Programme, FEWS NET, UNICEF and IPC.
The minister also noted that the projected number of Nigerians facing severe food and nutrition insecurity declined from 34.8 million in the corresponding 2026 projection to 33.5 million in 2027.
He, however, acknowledged that food insecurity remained a serious national challenge, adding that the government was implementing measures to address the situation.
Kyari said the administration was expanding access to fertiliser and other agricultural inputs, increasing mechanisation, expanding irrigation and dry-season farming, strengthening agricultural financing and investing in storage and processing facilities.
He added that improved security in some farming communities had enabled farmers who previously could not access their farmlands to return to cultivation.
The minister specifically mentioned Marte and Guzamala in Borno State, saying improved stability in the areas had allowed the Cadre Harmonisé assessment to be conducted there after data collectors were previously unable to access them.
He also listed fertiliser distribution, local blending, mechanisation partnerships, dry-season farming and agricultural financing through the Bank of Agriculture among the government’s interventions.
While admitting that the measures would not resolve the crisis overnight, Kyari maintained that food insecurity was a longstanding structural problem that predated the Tinubu administration.
He said, “Climate change is the biggest culprit. Inconsistent rainfall and prolonged dry spells have made it difficult for our farmers to rely on rain-fed agriculture. The Super El Niño phenomenon has also disrupted weather patterns in many regions, affecting planting seasons and crop production.”
The minister further urged political actors to exercise caution when discussing food security data, warning against turning the challenges faced by millions of Nigerians into political talking points.
He added, “We welcome scrutiny. We welcome constructive criticism. But there is a clear difference between legitimate political debate and deliberately misrepresenting a technical assessment for electoral propaganda.”
Kyari said the government would continue to use the assessment to strengthen agricultural interventions, support farmers, protect livelihoods and improve access to safe, nutritious and affordable food.
Politics Nigeria reports that Super El Niño is an unusually strong climate phenomenon characterised by significantly warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean which can disrupt global weather patterns, causing extreme heat, irregular rainfall, prolonged droughts and flooding in different regions.
