The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has said the country’s economy is beginning to recover and record stronger growth following a series of difficult economic reforms introduced by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.
In an internal report, the revenue agency said Nigeria had moved from a period of severe macroeconomic instability to a more stable and increasingly resilient economic position.
The NRS attributed the improvement to reforms targeted at correcting major distortions inherited by the Tinubu administration, including the costly fuel subsidy regime, an opaque foreign exchange system, weak performance in the oil sector and a tax system that generated significantly less revenue than its potential.
Although the reforms initially triggered considerable economic hardship, the agency said recent indicators were pointing to a gradual recovery.
It identified falling inflation, stronger external reserves, increased oil production, improved tax revenue, a stronger balance of payments and changes in the structure of the economy as evidence of the emerging recovery.
According to the report, Nigeria’s minimum wage doubled between 2023 and 2026, while government interventions and incentives helped reduce the estimated number of out-of-school children from 20 million to 18.3 million, based on UNICEF figures.
The NRS also highlighted the impact of the naira-for-crude initiative involving the Dangote Refinery and other domestic refineries, saying the policy had helped Nigeria move from decades of dependence on imported petroleum products to becoming a net exporter.
It said crude oil production increased from between 1.2 million and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million barrels per day by July 2026.
The figure, according to the agency, represented about 104 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota.
The positive developments have also been reflected in the capital market, with the market capitalisation of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) rising from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to approximately N161 trillion in 2026.
The NRS attributed the market’s expansion partly to improved confidence in the macroeconomic environment, recapitalisation of the banking sector and increased participation by domestic institutional investors.
Tax revenue has also recorded substantial growth.
The agency said collections more than doubled from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion as of July 2026.
It attributed the increase to the digitisation of tax administration, the implementation of four new tax reform laws, the restructuring of the revenue service and an executive order designed to block revenue leakages and close existing loopholes.
The report further stated that Nigeria’s economic growth rate improved from 2.74 per cent in 2023 to 3.8 per cent in the first half of 2026.
External reserves also increased significantly, rising from $3.99 billion in 2023 to $51.9 billion by July 2026.
The country’s balance of payments equally improved, moving from a deficit of $3.34 billion to a surplus of $2.38 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
Nigeria’s trade position strengthened considerably during the period, with the country moving from a marginal trade surplus of about N44.7 billion to a surplus of N7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026.
Capital importation also increased sharply, rising from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion in 2025, while inflows stood at $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
The NRS also pointed to progress under the Federal Government’s compressed natural gas (CNG) initiative.
According to the report, more than 100,000 vehicles had been converted to CNG by 2026, while the programme attracted more than $2 billion in investments and generated over 10,000 jobs.
In agriculture, the revenue service said federal government allocations increased from N228.4 billion in 2023 to N826.5 billion in the 2025 budget.
It said the increase supported measures such as the release of strategic grain reserves, the establishment of the N100 billion National Agricultural Development Fund, fertiliser distribution and agricultural mechanisation programmes.
The report, however, noted that the impact of agricultural policies would take time to fully materialise, warning that several planting seasons would be required before the interventions could translate into significantly higher food production.
The NRS also cited a reduction in food prices of about 50 per cent by March 2026, based on figures attributed to the Ministry of Agriculture.
On public debt, the agency acknowledged that Nigeria’s debt stock increased from N87.4 trillion in 2023 to N159.28 trillion by late 2025.
However, it said the debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 38 per cent in 2023 to 35.5 per cent in 2025 and further to 32.3 per cent in 2026.
The NRS described the decline as the first sustained reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio in more than a decade.
It also said debt servicing as a proportion of government revenue had fallen from 68 per cent to an International Monetary Fund-projected 53 per cent.
The agency maintained that while the reforms had imposed significant short-term costs on households and businesses, the emerging economic indicators suggested that the measures were beginning to strengthen Nigeria’s fiscal position, production capacity and overall macroeconomic stability.
READ ALSO:
